Welsh electoral 'earthquake' of Tory gains suggested by poll

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Forty percent of those asked said they would vote Conservative (up by 12 percentage points since a similar survey in January), versus 30 percent for Labour (down three percentage points since the last survey). Plaid Cymru could expect 13 per cent of the vote, the Lib Dems eight per cent and UKIP six per cent.

A surge in support for the Tories could see them replace Labour as the largest party in Wales at the general election, according to a poll for ITV Wales.

If the figures are accurate, that would be a huge blow to Jeremy Corbyn's Labour. The Electoral Calculus is now predicting the Tories to win 410 seats, which would give the ruling party a whopping parliamentary majority of 170 seats.

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Wales has been a Labour stronghold for decades.

The ten seats that the Tories are projected to pick up from Labour are: Ynys Mon, Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff South and Penarth, Cardiff West, Clwyd South, Delyn, Newport East, Newport West and Wrexham.

Translated into seats in parliament, the polling puts the Conservatives on 21 MPs, with Labour on 15. The poll put support for UKIP on 6 percent, down 7 points.

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Corbyn was in Cardiff on Friday to launch his party's Welsh general election campaign, praising the Labour-run Welsh Assembly for its leadership on issues such as free school meals and the NHS.

But the figures are also bad for Ukip whose supporters appear to be heading to the Tories in significant numbers.

Welsh Labour leader Carwyn Jones.

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But few Welsh Labour MPs backed him, many fearing the Tory surge of the 2015 general election - and the fact Wales voted for "Leave" in the 2016 European Union referendum - was an ominous warning of the dangers posed by votes lost to UKIP.

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